Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 0.008501 0.009584 0.010769 0.012168 0.013776 0.015573 0.017736
2024-12-22 0.006515 0.007908 0.009568 0.011704 0.014398 0.017707 0.022113
2024-12-29 0.005574 0.007103 0.009028 0.011656 0.015186 0.019818 0.026446
2025-01-05 0.005133 0.006810 0.009023 0.012198 0.016700 0.022960 0.032500
2025-01-12 0.004481 0.006137 0.008402 0.011784 0.016795 0.024099 0.035829
2025-01-19 0.003989 0.005616 0.007916 0.011471 0.016950 0.025283 0.039325
2025-01-26 0.003666 0.005296 0.007670 0.011462 0.017529 0.027139 0.044100
2025-02-02 0.003525 0.005223 0.007772 0.011980 0.018970 0.030511 0.051881
2025-02-09 0.003272 0.004953 0.007541 0.011936 0.019477 0.032384 0.057306
2025-02-16 0.003088 0.004773 0.007429 0.012067 0.020278 0.034841 0.064159
2025-02-23 0.002867 0.004511 0.007159 0.011897 0.020522 0.036316 0.069332
2025-03-02 0.002723 0.004362 0.007062 0.012011 0.021283 0.038824 0.076959
2025-03-09 0.002548 0.004157 0.006864 0.011950 0.021760 0.040949 0.084379
2025-03-16 0.002320 0.003844 0.006456 0.011471 0.021392 0.041374 0.088246
2025-03-23 0.002183 0.003678 0.006291 0.011425 0.021863 0.043570 0.096528
2025-03-30 0.002142 0.003677 0.006420 0.011955 0.023564 0.048613 0.112584
2025-04-06 0.001977 0.003439 0.006094 0.011550 0.023256 0.049192 0.117668
2025-04-13 0.001840 0.003242 0.005829 0.011245 0.023122 0.050145 0.123915
2025-04-20 0.001751 0.003130 0.005715 0.011236 0.023642 0.052697 0.134997
2025-04-27 0.001729 0.003140 0.005840 0.011742 0.025391 0.058480 0.156472
2025-05-04 0.001647 0.003030 0.005716 0.011700 0.025853 0.061126 0.169393
2025-05-11 0.001589 0.002962 0.005672 0.011827 0.026738 0.064997 0.187004
2025-05-18 0.001506 0.002839 0.005506 0.011661 0.026876 0.066900 0.198793